This is my 7th week of my crypto trading experiment, where I run four simulated portfolios, each started with $1000. Every week I sell the coins and rebuy, with the following allocations:
- Buy the top 5 performing coins of the week in the top 100 on CMC; (FOMO 100)
- Buy the top 5 performing coins of the week in the top 200 on CMC; (FOMO 200)
- Buy the bottom 5 performing coins of the week in the top 100 on CMC; (FEAR 100)
- Buy the bottom 5 performing coins of the week in the top 200 on CMC. (FEAR 200)
For a control, this is compared against an initial $1000 of bitcoin (bought 7 weeks ago).
And just for fun, for the last 2 weeks I've recorded my own trades, with five coins bought as I see fit.
Now we are at week 7, with 6 weeks of trades recorded. I have also recorded all of the existing portfolio positions, so we can also compare how they performed if they had simply stopped trading and held.
First = the bitcoin portfolio stands at $1,223 - a 22% gain in 6 weeks.
Here is the most recent week portfolios and results (compared to my last update 2 weeks ago)
FOMO 100: OMG, YFI, RSR, UTK, REN $1196 (DOWN from $1307)
FOMO 200: OMG, YFI, OXT, RSR, UTK $1087 (DOWN from $1512)
FEAR 100: ANT, AMPL, BNT, SXP, DIVI $1204 (UP from $1197)
FEAR 200: PNT, ANT, DGXT, AMPL, ETHOS $1093 (UP from $995)
My picks: OMG, LINK, TRAC, YFI, SNX $1386 (UP from $1253)
So interestingly, while altcoins have possibly had a slightly rough journey over the last 2 weeks, the FEAR portfolios have recovered slightly, and the FOMO portfolios had a huge retrace.
And here is a table showing ALL the portfolios over 6 weeks. So week 1 shows the position if I had bought but never traded again, while week 6 shows the effect of buying and re-selling over six weeks.
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOMO 100 | $1275 | $1386 | $1051 | $1201 | $1063 | $1196 | $1195 |
| FOMO 200 | $1036 | $1382 | $948 | $1264 | $1227 | $1087 | $1156 |
| FEAR 100 | $1032 | $1177 | $1483 | $1035 | $1001 | $1204 | $1155 |
| FEAR 200 | $973 | $1119 | $1391 | $840 | $908 | $1093 | $1054 |
| My picks | $1383 | $1386 | $1385 |
So looking at the current positions (week 6) the experiment has failed to matched bitcoin's movements, with the FEAR 100 portfolio close but not quite there.
On the other hand if we average the results of all the portfolios over the six weeks, we see that the ranking favours the "FOMO" strategy (skewed towards the top 100) but only just.
Quite happy with the performance of my picks so will try and keep that up.
Also - a fun fact. The best buy over the entire 6 weeks was Solana, bought on July 30 and up 150% (bought in the FOMO 200 portfolio in week 4). The worse buy was not in fact Ampleforth (though that was close) - it was in fact Ditigtex, bought July 23 in the FEAR 200 portfolio in week 3 - down 52%.
Week 8 portfolios as below with prices (recorded 2 days ago):
My picks: Lend 0.836 , Cosmos 7.82, YFI 15206, Kusama 30.90, Serum 2.04
FOMO Top 100 Kusama Ant (9.53) Celo 4.09 OMG 5.25 LEND 0.836
FOMO top 200 Kusama Stake (19.64), Ant (9.53) Storj (0.464) Celo, OMG 5.25
FEAR Top 100 Nervos (.007154), Wave 3.24 Hedgetrade 1.58, Holo 0.000741 ADA .1144
FEAR Top 200 Swap (.8511) Handshake (.142) Trac (.197) Hive 0.23 Nervos
Will any of these be able to stand their ground vs BTC? Final update in 2 weeks!
Submitted August 28, 2020 at 04:10PM by Cryptodragonnz https://ift.tt/34K1UOu https://ift.tt/2Z7cX2s
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