There are so many benefits to using a cryptocurrency, that it would seem foolish to neglect such an invention. For example, it allows you to send money anywhere in the world in an instant, with basically no fees involved. Everyone can be included in the financial system, it will change the way we interact with money, it can prevent fraud, and much more.
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Welcome to the Monthly Skeptics Discussion thread. The goal of this thread is to promote critical discussion by challenging popular or conventional beliefs.
This thread is scheduled to be reposted on the 1st of every month. Due to the 2 post sticky limit, this thread will not be permanently stickied like the Daily Discussion thread. It will often be taken down to make room for important announcements or news.
Discussion topics must be on topic, i.e. only related to skeptical or critical discussion about cryptocurrency. Markets or financial advice discussion, will most likely be removed and is better suited for the daily thread.
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A sea change is coming to cryptocurrency in America. It is likely to hit in two separate waves: a central bank digital currency (CBDC) and draconian regulation that shuts down free-market activities, including development.
Robert Wenzel of the Economic Policy Journal has a warning. “A [U.S.] Federal Reserve created digital coin could be one of the most dangerous steps ever taken by a government agency. It would put in the hands of the government the potential to create a digital currency with the ability to track all transactions in an economy—and prohibit transactions for any reason. In terms of future individual freedom, this would be a nightmare.” If recent statements by American lawmakers and bureaucrats are an indication, however, state-issued crypto seems to be on its way.
A shift in attitude on CBDC is in the air. Consider Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard. In May 2018, she stated, “There is no compelling demonstrated need for a Fed-issued digital currency.” While acknowledging the efficiency and low cost of blockchain transfers, Brainard presented a familiar check list of objections to digital currencies. They were too volatile to be utilized as money; their anonymity protected crimes like money laundering and sex trafficking; they eluded regulation. Then Brainard added what may have been the fundamental reason for dismissing a CBDC. At the beginning of 2018, digital currencies were so small a part of the financial system that they posed no stability risk. They did not threaten the monetary status quo. Or, at least, Brainard did not perceive the threat.
In February 2020, her tune differed. “The Fed is conducting research and experimentation related to distributed ledger technologies and their potential use case for digital currencies, including the potential for a CBDC.” The main public argument for a CBDC is a perceived need to stabilize crypto by pegging it to traditional fiat, which is assumed to be less volatile. The “nightmare” of which Wenzel warned already has a name: Fedcoin.
What changed between May 2018 and February 2020?
Crypto surged in popularity and price while central banks and their fiats continued a slow implosion. Several nations — including America’s financial nemesis China — announced an intention to issue e-currencies. “We are collaborating with other central banks as we advance our understanding of central bank digital currencies,” Brainard explained, all the while “making sure” we are at the “frontier of both research and policy development.” Translation: the U.S. does not want to be left behind. Neither will it eat Facebook’s dust; Brainard claimed that Facebook’s digital currency Libra, which emerged last year, “imparted urgency” to the conversation. Digital currency was becoming a large enough part of the financial system for agencies like the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the Federal Reserve, and the Treasury Department to notice.
The Wave of Draconian Regulation
The regulation attack is surging, and it will extend far beyond the current licensing of exchanges to make them function in conformity with state law.
The IRS has stepped up crypto prosecutions and has created new rules. In his article “IRS Explains What Crypto Owners Must Know to File Taxes This Year,” Kevin Helms observed, “Among the changes to the 2019 Form 1040, the main U.S. tax form, is the addition of ‘an inquiry regarding the acquisition or disposition of any virtual currency’, the agency explained. The new crypto question appears on Form 1040’s Schedule 1, entitled ‘Additional Income and Adjustments to Income’.” This is prelude.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin recently revealed that the Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) was preparing “significant new requirements” in order to provide transparency to crypto in a quest to prevent “crimes” such as tax avoidance. Here, transparency is a synonym for state surveillance. “We want to make sure that technology moves forward,” Mnuchin continued, “but … we want to make sure that cryptocurrencies aren’t used for the equivalent of old Swiss secret number bank accounts.” He added that FinCEN and the Treasury Department are “spending a lot of time on this.”
The Department of Justice was even more blunt, declaring bitcoin mixing to be “a crime” in and of itself. Yahoo Finance’s article “US DOJ Calls Bitcoin Mixing ‘a Crime’ in Arrest of Software Developer,” indicated how seriously the DOJ takes this alleged crime. “Larry Harmon was arrested earlier this week for allegedly participating in a money-laundering conspiracy worth more than $300 million in cryptocurrency involving darknet marketplace AlphaBay. However, the family of the Coin Ninja CEO claims he was never involved with AlphaBay. Harmon’s case raises pressing questions about developer liability in the crypto industry.” The mere development of tools has been criminalized.
The Two Waves Flood Together
As yet, Mnuchin has not supported a CBDC. He merely echoes President Trump’s loud concern that crypto is being used by bad actors, and the “abuses” must be reined in by careful state monitoring. The easiest way for this to be done is to create some form of CBDC on a blockchain protocol that the state controls, however.
The state’s pattern in monetary matters can be judged by how it handled private competition to the money it has issued in the past. Whatever the politicians say now, the same pattern is likely to hold with crypto as soon as it becomes pragmatically possible.
First, state money is issued through a central bank and free-market competitors are controlled by regulation. “To start with, I suspect it’s going to be a parallel currency,” the investment guru Doug Casey explained. “Perhaps usable just within the U.S. which, in effect, would be a form of foreign exchange controls even more effective than the inability of Americans to open up foreign bank and brokerage accounts today … I think it’s a near certainty that they’re going to do something like this and soon.” Second, the state will attempt to establish a monopoly by criminalizing the ownership of free-market crypto and, perhaps, mandating the ownership of state-issue. One manner in which a fiat has been historically mandated is by making taxes or other state fees payable only in that form of money.
Establishing a CBDC may be irresistible to Trump, not only as a way to stay competitive with rival monetary powers but also because of the extreme political power it offers. A CBDC would serve the state in at least two ways:
By controlling the design of the Fedcoin’s blockchain and its terms of use, the state can strip away encryption and anonymity so that every transaction is identifiable. Every user can be taxed. Every coin can be confiscated; the threat of confiscation or of being shut out of the financial system is a means to impose social control.
The CBDC eases people into a cashless society. States dislike cash because it offers an anonymity that blocks their ability to tax and control. If only the CBDC were permitted, however, extra “taxes” could be levied and social control asserted. If the state wanted to prevent someone from traveling, for example, it could block the person’s ability to buy a plane ticket … or ammunition for a gun.
The wording of the coming regulations and probable Fedcoin are not yet known. Their purpose is clear, however; the state wants to convert cryptocurrency into a form of state fiat and a technology of financial surveillance. The latter can reveal far more than economic transactions. As EFF observed, they can point “to everything from your friend network to your sexual interests to your political affiliations.”
State-controlled e-currency means state-controlled individuals.
Op-ed disclaimer:This is an Op-ed article. The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own. Bitcoin.com is not responsible for or liable for any content, accuracy or quality within the Op-ed article. Readers should do their own due diligence before taking any actions related to the content. Bitcoin.com is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any information in this Op-ed article.
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Welcome to the Monthly Skeptics Discussion thread. The goal of this thread is to promote critical discussion by challenging popular or conventional beliefs.
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Discussion topics must be on topic, i.e. only related to skeptical or critical discussion about cryptocurrency. Markets or financial advice discussion, will most likely be removed and is better suited for the daily thread.
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Welcome to the Daily Discussion. Please read the disclaimer, guidelines, and rules before participating.
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Bitcoin futures providers have been seeing a lot of action during the last two weeks as cryptocurrency markets have been extremely volatile. Data shows there’s been significant open interest on both retail and institutional bitcoin derivatives exchanges and Skew research noted bitcoin options open interest was just shy of $1 billion on Monday. Two days later, CME Group reported that open interest in CME Bitcoin Futures touched a record high of over 6,600 contracts and there’s nearly 300 new trading accounts that have been added this year.
Skew.com: ‘Spot Market Corrections Follow the Number of Outstanding Bitcoin Futures Positions’
BTC spot markets and bitcoin derivatives exchanges have seen notable price movements recently and a few speculators believe these two types of markets are well connected. During the first week of January 2020, bitcoin futures touched a three-month high and aggregated daily bitcoin derivatives volumes have been in the billions. This month, the spot price of BTC on Sunday, February 23 was around $9,940 per coin. Two days prior to the dump at $9,940 to $9,600 on Monday, CME Group’s Bitcoin Futures daily trade volume dropped significantly to $118 million. Monday was the lowest drop for CME in 2020, but the global markets exchange has seen a massive influx in open interest. The following Wednesday, CME Group tweeted that open interest touched a record high.
“CME Bitcoin futures (BTC) open interest reached a record high of over 6.6K contracts on February 19,” the global markets exchange tweeted. “Nearly 300 new trading accounts were added this year, as of February 24.”
On February 26 after the price of BTC slid from $9,600 to $8,580, more than $150 million worth of BTC was liquidated on the trading platform Bitmex. The data analytics provider Skew from the website skew.com tweeted about a large number of liquidations that took place on Wednesday. “$150mln+ liquidations on Bitmex today – highest in 2020,” Skew disclosed.
“Something is cooking,” the Twitter account @cinemaniac20 replied to Skew’s tweet. Skew has also recorded a number of derivatives market events during the course of the last two weeks. For instance, on Wednesday, Skew detailed that Okex hit a record number of BTC options “breaching the $15mln notional mark for the first time.” Today on February 28 as BTC spot markets have temporarily settled, the researcher tweeted:
As the market corrects so does the [number] of outstanding bitcoin futures positions.
Do Bitcoin Futures Markets Provide Predictive Power for Future Changes in the Spot Price?
Even though BTC spot market prices have slid in value considerably, derivatives providers are seeing increased volumes. Bakkt’s physically delivered bitcoin futures has seen decent trade volume and open interest, but still has yet to surpass the 6,601 traded contracts the platform saw on December 18. On Wednesday, February 26, Bakkt did around half that number with 3,328 ($29.32 million) traded contracts. Open interest at Bakkt on Wednesday was around $11.2 million. Thursday’s Bakkt Bitcoin Monthly Futures only saw 2,163 ($19.34 million) traded contracts and open interest was roughly $11.88 million.
At press time, BTC is down 2.95% in the last 24 hours and the coin is still down 56.7% from its all-time high of $19,600 on December 17, 2017. Speculators in 2017 believed the introduction of CBOE and CME Group bitcoin futures products helped propel the asset to almost reaching $20k. Despite the price hovering around $8,500-8,600 per BTC today, BTC is still up 14% over the last 90 days and 126% for the year against the U.S. dollar. There are far more bitcoin derivatives providers than in 2017 as well, even though Cboe stopped providing bitcoin futures products last year.
A recently published paper written by researchers Seungho Lee, Nabil El Meslmani, and Lorne Switzer discusses the concept of pricing efficiency and arbitrage in bitcoin spot and futures markets. The study notes that bitcoin futures can “provide some predictive power for future changes in the spot price and in the risk premium.” Researchers studied the pricing efficiency of BTC using spot market values and CBOE and CME futures contracts traded from January 2018 to March 2019.
“The basis of Bitcoin is a biased predictor of the future spot price changes,” the study’s abstract summary notes. “Cointegration tests also demonstrate that futures prices are biased predictors of spot prices. Deviations from no-arbitrage between spot and futures markets are persistent and widen significantly with Bitcoin thefts (hacks, frauds) as well as alternative cryptocurrency issuances.”
A number of crypto traders believe futures markets can provide some predictive power for future changes in the spot price. An example of this notion is during the second week of February when the price per BTC was chopped down from over $10.2k to the $9,800 range. The drop followed the unfilled price gap that took place on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin Futures chart. Traders have noticed a number of “filling the gap” or “closing the gap” scenarios throughout 2019 and 2020. These events and the recent study shows a noticeable connection between bitcoin derivatives markets and spot trades.
What do you think about the record numbers bitcoin derivatives providers have seen in 2020? Do you think futures markets can provide some predictive power for future changes in the spot price? Let us know what you think about this subject in the comments section below.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation, endorsement, or sponsorship of any products, services, or companies. Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.
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Should you buy bitcoin or bitcoin cash? Does tezos have further room to grow? Is monero a long-term hold? There are no absolute answers to these questions and no crystal ball to determine which crypto will pull a 5x before the year’s out. Based on fundamentals alone, however, here are some reasons why you might wish to buy or sell the top 20 cryptos by market cap.
Bull: The bull case for investing in bitcoin core is pretty straightforward: it’s the largest crypto by a country mile with the deepest liquidity, institutional exposure, futures products, and store of value characteristics. It’s also got a halving that’s less than three months away. When the cryptocurrency market kicks into high gear, it’s a safe bet that bitcoin will lead the charge.
Bear: Bitcoin may be the safest haven for crypto investors, but it’s had 11 years for price discovery to play out. With a lack of innovation to renew interest and no major partnerships to announce thanks to its decentralized design, there’s a risk that investors could get bored and seek out more exotic assets. Moreover, with Lightning Network still failing to deliver, in the event of onchain fees rising to 2017 levels, the Bitcoin network could become unusable, diminishing its market value.
Ethereum
Bull: Ethereum 2.0 is on course to launch within the next four months. If the upgrade passes without a hitch, interest in the smart contract network is likely to surge. Its ability to shrug off all competitors to date, from EOS to Cardano, also stand it in good stead for the next bull run. Throw in Ethereum’s network effects, large developer community, and diverse use cases, and there’s a strong case for investing in ETH.
Bear: Ethereum 2.0 carries serious systemic risks, and failure to launch could impact investor confidence. A major defi hack is another black swan event that could surface at any time. ETH’s loose monetary policy is also a reason why it may be less attractive as a long-term investment, despite the network’s undoubted utility.
Bull: Remember what ripple did in 2017, rocketing from a few cents to over $3 a token? When market mania returns, a repeat feat is not beyond the realms of possibility. Ripple (the company) is also very well connected, and should it secure a major partnership, such as with a tech or payment giant, expect XRP to moon.
Bear: Huge Ripple holdings of XRP, little enterprise usage, and the specter of a securities lawsuit still linger over the third largest crypto by market cap.
Bitcoin Cash
Bull: Low onchain fees, significant innovation (e.g.privacy,micro-blogging),merchant adoption, and an enthusiastic community all augur well for the future of BCH. It does all of the things that BTC does, but without the risk of fees spiraling overnight. Some investors see BCH as a hedge against BTC underperforming; if bitcoin core fees rocket, expect bitcoin cash to prosper.
Bear: Much of the roadmap for Bitcoin Cash is based around securing global adoption as a medium of exchange (MoE). Should merchants and consumers trend towards using stablecoins instead of volatile cryptos, BCH could falter. There are also some community disputes over matters such as developer funding to be resolved. While not critical, there is an outside chance that acrimony could lead to factions.
Bitcoin SV
Bull: The machinations of BSV whales such as Calvin Ayre and Craig Wright, coupled with its limited liquidity which enables manipulation, means the Bitcoin fork could pump at any time. When it does, it’s likely to moon.
Bear: Holding a highly volatile crypto asset with limited adoption is a risky venture.
Litecoin
Bull: Litecoin often leads bitcoin in rallying, serving as the coal mine canary that presages a crypto market upturn.
Bear: As a generic MoE with little to distinguish it from BTC, a fundamental assessment of LTC identifies few attributes that qualify it as moon material.
Bull: EOS initially escaped the worst of this week’s market dump after its inflation ratewas cut. The smart contract network has yet to deliver on its promises, but there remains wads of capital for EOS VC to award in grants, which could kick development up several notches. If EOS-powered social networkVoiceproves a success, there may also be an uptick in investment appeal.
Bear: The EOS network has been afflicted by degradation of service, while the wildly fluctuating cost of onchain resources such as vRAM can make dapps expensive to run at scale.
Binance Coin
Bull: Binance is the hardest working exchange in the industry, shipping new products at a dizzying rate. One of the best performing assets of the last 12 months, BNB’s fortunes are closely correlated with those of the world’s largest crypto exchange, which is showing no signs of slowing down.
Bear: Should Binance run into regulatory problems or suffer a devastating hack, expect BNB to plummet.
Tezos
Bull: One of this year’s best performing cryptos, XTZ could be viewed as undervalued when compared to similar assets such as ETH. Major crypto traders are long tezos, and have the social following to heighten the retail investor FOMO.
Bear: Tezos has yet to deliver significant utility, and there’s a distinct lack of notable projects that have launched on the smart contract blockchain. If Tezos doesn’t start adding real world value soon, XTZ’s goodwill could rapidly be exhausted.
Chainlink
Bull: Chainlink’s transformation from a small cap project into the cryptosphere’s de facto oracle solution, with a $500M market cap, has been impressive. Dozens of major partnerships, with the promise of many more to come, could keep LINK ticking over for months.
Bear: Critics assert that the LINK token has limited utility to justify its market cap, and that Chainlink could operate without it. Few entities are currently using LINK for anything other than speculation.
Cardano’s Charles Hoskinson
Cardano
Bull: A sleeping giant that has been slow to roll out its roadmap, Cardano has yet to realize its potential. If projects begin building on Charles Hoskinson’s Ethereum alternative, ADA could belatedly break out.
Bear: Like LINK, ADA isn’t being used for much aside from trading at present. At some stage, the network will have to start seeing usage, or there will be nothing to justify its valuation.
Monero
Bull: A privacy coin that actually works, and which sees respectable usage, particularly on the darknet. As the battle against privacy ramps up, monero stands out as a bastion of onchain anonymity.
Bear: A few thousand darknet buyers isn’t enough to send XMR’s price skywards. Furthermore, heightened regulatory pressure could see the privacy coin delisted from major exchanges.
Stellar
Bull: Fast, cheap transactions and the business nous of Ripple mastermind Jed McCaleb.
Bear: An XRP knock-off with a huge circulating supply and little to differentiate it from its more famous forebear.
Tron
Bull: Strong adoption by gambling dapps, tether, and the marketing clout of megamouth Justin Sun.
Bear: A relatively centralized Ethereum clone whose fortunes hinge largely on the actions of one man.
Huobi Token
Bull: The backing of one of the industry’s largest exchanges, with tentacles that reach around the globe, HT should grow with Huobi, particularly if initial exchange offerings undergo a renaissance.
Bear: Siloed within the Huobi ecosystem, HT’s fate is wholly dependent upon that of its issuer.
LEO
Bull: Bitfinex’s market share may have diminished, but the exchange remains a dominant force in the cryptosphere. The parent company of Tether is a shrewd operator with the experience and industry support to propel LEO to new highs.
Bear: Yet another exchange token with limited utility.
Ethereum Classic
Bull: If Ethereum 2.0 proves a flop, ETC could pick up the slack and enjoy a commensurate price jump.
Bear: Four years into its lifespan and Ethereum Classic has produced little to shout about. It’s hard to see that changing now.
Which cryptocurrencies do you expect to perform well this year? Let us know in the comments section below.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation, endorsement, or sponsorship of any products, services, or companies. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.
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